Find the Edge with Real Stats

Probability models for MLB home runs, NHL goals, and NFL touchdowns — built on real stats, not opinions.

Select a sport

Home run probability · Live MLB Stats API + Statcast

Documented track record

+23.5%
ROI on MLB HR props

115+

Units profit

500+

Bets tracked

Three sports. One model.

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MLB Home Runs

Barrel%, HR/FB%, park factors, live Statcast data

🏒

NHL Goals

Shot volume, shooting%, goalie GAA & SV%, team GAPG

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NFL Touchdowns

Red zone looks, usage rate, target share, defense TDPG

How it works

Type in the player, their opponent, and the FanDuel odds or line.

Live stats pull automatically. The model calculates probability using real 2025-26 data.

Get a probability, tier grade (A/B/C), and stat-based reasoning — then decide.

BarrelEdge is an analytical tool for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or gambling advice. Bet responsibly.

Problem gambling help: Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER

Batter

Player name

Starting Pitcher

Pitcher name

Opposing Team

Team name

American odds

Expected SP innings

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0%2%4%6%8%+

Implied prob

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Edge

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Model Reasoning

Generating analysis...

Probability Drivers

Player Stats

Opponent Stats

Defense / Team